Obama wins North Carolina, Clinton takes Indiana

Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton split crucial presidential contests in Indiana and North Carolina on Tuesday, pushing Obama closer to securing the Democratic nomination but keeping Clinton's faint hopes alive.

CBS News projected Clinton's win in Indiana, which preserved her slender chances in a prolonged Democratic duel that now moves to the next contest in one week in West Virginia. Other networks had not made a projection with more than two-thirds of the vote counted and Clinton leading 53 percent to 47 percent.

"I want to start by congratulating Senator Clinton on what appears to be a victory in the great state of Indiana," Obama told supporters in Raleigh, North Carolina.

Obama swamped Clinton in North Carolina, righting his campaign after a rough patch fueled by his comments on "bitter" small-town residents and a controversy over racially charged comments by his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

Indiana and North Carolina, with a combined 187 delegates to the Democrats' August nominating convention at stake, were the biggest prizes left in the Democratic race. Only six contests remain.

The two Democrats have battled for months for the right to represent the party in November's presidential election against Republican John McCain.

Obama, a 46-year-old Illinois senator who would be the first black U.S. president, has an almost unassailable lead in pledged delegates who will help select the Democratic nominee.

His win in North Carolina will move him closer to the 2,025 delegates needed to clinch the nomination and reduce the chance Clinton will be able to overtake his lead in either pledged delegates or popular votes won in the state-by-state nominating battle.

Obama news : New campaign crowd high for Obama

Barack Obama was greeted by the largest crowd of his campaign Friday night in Philadelphia. Some 35,000 people jammed into Independence Park to see the Democratic presidential candidate, four days before this state's crucial April 22 primary.

Frank Friel, director of security at the Independence Visitor Center, made the official estimate.

The crowd exceed the 30,000 who greeted Obama and Oprah Winfrey in December in Columbia, S.C.

Obama told the crowd the United States is at a crucial moment in its history, much like what the founding fathers faced in Philadelphia.

"It was over 200 years ago that a group of patriots gathered in this city to do something that no one in the world believed they could do," Obama said. "After years of a government that didn't listen to them, or speak for them, or represent their hopes and their dreams, a few humble colonists came to Philadelphia to declare their independence from the tyranny of the British throne."

The Illinois senator called Democratic rival Hillary Rodham Clinton a "tenacious" opponent but said it was time to move beyond the politics of the 1990s.

"Her message comes down to this: We can't really change the say-anything, do-anything, special interest-driven game in Washington, so we might as well choose a candidate who really knows how to play it," Obama said.

Obama news : Obama dominates Pennsylvania airwaves in home stretch

Barack Obama has spent more than $8 million on Pennsylvania campaign spots over the past month – more than twice what Hillary Clinton has – as ad spending this year continues its record pace.

The Illinois senator’s presidential campaign had spent $8.1 million in the four-week period ending April 16, half of that in the critical – and pricey – Philadelphia ad market, according to an analysis conducted by TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG, CNN’s consultant on political advertising spending.

He is spending $400,000 a day, on a pace to exceed $10 million in ad spending – more than double Clinton’s $3.3 million in ad buys.

“Senator Obama’s campaign has done an excellent job of putting their fundraising advantage to work with record Pennsylvania ad buys, forcing Senator Clinton to spend valuable time and money in a state where she had a double-digit lead in the polls only a few weeks ago,” said Evan Tracey, chief operating officer of TNSMI/CMAG.

“If her own message connects with voters and pays off, it could be a big moral boost for the Clinton campaign. If not: the Obama strategy has paid off.”

Obama is also dominating the airwaves in upcoming primary states, spending $1.4 million in North Carolina and $1.8 million in Indiana, and has ads on the air in Oregon, according to the analysis. Clinton has made smaller buys in North Carolina and Indiana, and has not yet begun airing ads in Oregon.

Obama news: Poll shows Obama gaining, holding steady in key states

Despite a weekend of negative coverage following his controversial remarks about some small town Americans, Barack Obama appears to be holding steady or making gains in the next three primary states, according to a just released poll.

Most surprisingly, the new LA Times/Bloomberg poll shows Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton by 5 points in Indiana (40 to 35 percent), a state with demographics that favor the New York senator and one where other recent polls have shown her with a lead.

The poll also shows Clinton only holds a 5 point lead in Pennsylvania (48 to 43 percent). That margin is among the slimmest measured between to the two candidates and is significantly less than the double digit lead Clinton held there two weeks ago.

In North Carolina, the new survey shows Obama with a 13 point lead (47-34 percent), a margin that is consistent with other recent polls in that state.

Pennsylvania votes April 22 while Indiana and North Carolina vote two weeks later on May 6. Should Clinton win in Pennsylvania, some political observers have said she must score a victory in at least one of the May 6 states to make a compelling argument to continue her presidential campaign.

The poll was conducted over five days (April 10-14), the majority of which came after Obama's now famous "bitter" comments first surfaced.

Obama news: Polls: Clinton's lead down to 4 points in Pennsylvania

Sen. Hillary Clinton's lead over Sen. Barack Obama in the crucial primary state of Pennsylvania has dwindled to 4 points, a CNN average of recent polls calculated Thursday shows.

The New York senator now holds a 4 point advantage over her rival for the Democratic presidential nomination, 46 to 42 percent. Twelve percent of likely Democratic voters there remain unsure.

Recent CNN "poll of polls" suggest the race in Pennsylvania is tightening before the state's April 22 primary. A poll of polls calculated two days ago showed Clinton with a 6 point lead in Pennsylvania, and a poll of polls last Friday showed her on top by 11 points.

“Obama is outspending Clinton by better than two to one on television ads in Pennsylvania,” said Alan Silverleib, CNN’s senior political researcher. “Combine that with Clinton’s recent misstatement over her 1996 trip to Bosnia and the escalating chorus of voices calling on her to withdraw from the race, and you get a much tighter contest.”

Thursday's poll of polls included recent surveys from Time Magazine, American Research Group, and Quinnipiac University.

Obama news : The real Clinton mistakes

A post-mortem on the Clinton campaign is premature, but it’s never too early to learn from mistakes. While everyone agrees mistakes were made, the nature of those errors remains a matter of debate.

• Early States vs. Many States — Some have opined that the Clinton campaign spent too much time and money on Iowa and New Hampshire at the expense of later states. I would suggest she dedicated too little to Iowa and the optimum to New Hampshire.

By the end of December, Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) and Barack Obama (D-Ill.) had each raised just over $100 million and, in principle, both had about the same number of campaign days. Yet the Clinton campaign allowed the Obama team to outspend them on Iowa TV by 40 percent and to have about the same advantage in campaign events. If she had done more events and more TV in Iowa, would Hillary Clinton have won? Impossible to prove the counterfactual, but it couldn’t have hurt, and there is no doubt that had Clinton won Iowa, she would be the presumptive nominee today.

Alternatively, had she not won New Hampshire, Clinton would have been forced from the race months ago.

So while some of her Iowa spending could have been misdirected, the truth is Clinton spent too little on what matters in Iowa and about the right amount in New Hampshire.

• Micro vs. Macro — Readers of Mark Penn’s Microtrends argue that his micro-messages failed against Obama’s macro-message of change. That too is not quite right. Clinton did have a macro-message early on — experience. It was just the wrong message. Every poll for two years demonstrated that Democrats prefer change over experience by 2 to 1. Good campaigns have both macro- and micro-messages, and in the very best, the two are inextricably linked.

• A Message vs. A List — While Clinton did develop a macro-message, for too much of the campaign she merely had a list of popular proposals. A strong message beats a good list.

• Big States vs. All States — To all appearances the Clinton campaign operated from the theory that only big states count; “small” states didn’t, and that was an error as big as they come. Clinton won more than twice as many states with over 100 delegates, while Obama won nearly three times as many states with under 50 delegates. Yet Clinton’s net advantage in those big states amounted to just three delegates, while Obama’s massive victories in the largely uncontested small states gave him a 55-delegate advantage over Clinton.

Put differently, Obama got a greater delegate advantage from his win in Idaho than Clinton did from her Ohio victory, and he generated a bigger delegate lead in Kansas than she wrested from New Jersey.

• Big Money vs. All Money — In the money chase, too, the Clinton campaign played by old rules, apparently unaware of just how much this game had changed. Through Feb. 29, Clinton had a nearly $7 million advantage with the big donors, though Obama led the money race overall by a staggering $39 million. The entire difference came from donors who gave $200 or less — the fruits of Obama’s effective Internet strategy.

By its own admission the Clinton campaign left this very profitable stone largely unturned until she was forced to lend her campaign money. Not everyone can turn the Internet into a gusher, but the simple fact is that her campaign did not work the medium nearly as hard as Obama did, and it paid off for him. That’s why he is once again wildly outspending her on TV, this time in Pennsylvania, putting a once-sure Clinton win in jeopardy.

Lots for everybody to learn.

Obama News : Obama Moves to 9-point Lead Over Clinton

Barack Obama has gained support in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report for April 4-6, and now leads Hillary Clinton by a statistically significant margin, 52% to 43%.

Obama's current 52% support level matches his highest of the year, although his margin over Clinton was slightly larger, at 52% to 42%, in March 27-29 polling. So far this year Obama has been unable to sustain a significant lead over Clinton for more than a few days. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008.

Obama had a particularly strong showing in Sunday's interviewing, and it will remain to be seen if he is able to enlarge and sustain a margin of victory in the days ahead. Two events have been in the news in recent days that, in theory, could affect Democrats' support levels for their two candidates. Bill and Hillary Clinton released their tax returns for the last eight years on Friday, reporting that they made over $100 million during that time period. Sunday Clinton's chief campaign strategist, Mark Penn, resigned his position after reports that the public relations firm of which he is president had a conflict of interests with the Clinton campaign.

Obama remains tied with presumptive Republican nominee John McCain when registered voters nationally as given a hypothetical November general election matchup between the two. McCain retains a slight two percentage point margin over Clinton.

Obama news : Obama skeptical of poll numbers

Presidential hopeful Barack Obama believes that Hillary Clinton's lead in Pennsylvania is actually much larger than the polls will have you believe, the Illinois senator said in an interview Saturday with the Courier Times.

Obama also said that his fierce contest with Clinton for the nomination will not cause any long-term damage within the Democratic party, that Clinton should not be forced out of the race even if she loses Pennsylvania's primary and that voters are not as concerned about racial issues as the media might have you believe.

This week, several polls were released showing that Obama had closed a once-formidable lead by Clinton in Pennsylvania's April 22 primary. The polls had Clinton up by an average of nearly 7 percentage points and one even had Obama leading by 2 points, but Obama said he had no faith in those numbers.

“I don't believe in polls when I'm up and I don't believe in polls when I'm down,” Obama said in a phone interview shortly after a campaign stop in Montana. “I still think we're losing by 20. I'm joking a little.”

Obama, who sees himself as an underdog in the Pennsylvania primary, said Clinton should stay in the race even if he won that contest as long as she has support.

“I think that Sen. Clinton should be able to continue for as long as she wants to,” he said.

Obama added that the tight contests in states such as Pennsylvania, where voters have not had a say in the presidential nomination process in a generation, were, ultimately, beneficial to the party.

“It means that we're getting our voters engaged and interested,” he said.

He said he saw no lasting rift in the party caused by his battle with Clinton and said all Democrats would come together once the nomination was settled, which might not occur until the Democratic National Convention in August.

“I think that we will unify fairly quickly once the convention begins,” he said. “Whatever differences that Sen. Clinton and I have pale in comparison with the differences that we have with John McCain.”

Obama, who delivered a major speech on American race relations last month in Philadelphia, said that the race issue may be overly hyped by the media.

“I don't think it has been a big issue throughout this campaign,” said Obama, who pointed out that he has won in predominately white states like Idaho, North Dakota and Wisconsin. “I think that race was bound to have some relevance given that I'm the first African-American candidate to have come this far, but I have to say that the vast majority of Americans are much less concerned about race and gender than they are about [other issues].”

Those issues include rising gas prices, insufficient health care, job security and the war in Iraq, Obama said.

He said that the media has tried to make race a predominant issue in the campaign, trying to figure out who black voters or white voters might favor in this campaign.

“The press is absolutely trying to push and peddle this agenda,” he said.

Obama declined to comment extensively on recently released tax returns that show that Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, earned more than $109 million over the past eight years.

“There's no doubt that most of the candidates for president are better off than average Americans,” he said.

Still, Obama said he and his wife, Michelle, might better understand the financial struggles facing average Americans.

“We do have a pretty good feel for the day-to-day struggles that people go through,” he said.

Obama also declined to comment on whether Bucks County Congressman Patrick Murphy's, D-8, support for his campaign might lead to a spot for Murphy in the Obama administration if he is eventually elected president.

“Patrick Murphy is an extraordinary talent and he will always have a spot in my heart,” he said.

He said he was “looking forward” to working with Murphy, an Iraq war veteran, on veterans' issues and war policy if he is elected.

Obama news : Obama Leading Clinton in NC

In North Carolina, Barack Obama has opened up a twenty-three percentage point lead over Hillary Clinton. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that Obama attracts 56% of the vote while Clinton earns 33%. A month ago, Obama’s lead was just seven percentage points.

While the absolute numbers are different, the trend is similar to results from Pennsylvania where Obama gained ten-points on Clinton during the month of March.

Perhaps the only disturbing news for Obama in the survey is that most Clinton voters (56%) say they are not likely to vote for the Illinois Senator in the general election against John McCain. A month ago, 45% of Clinton voters said they were not likely to vote for Obama against McCain.

There remains an enormous racial divide in the North Carolina data. Obama leads 86% to 9% among African-American voters. Clinton holds a 47% to 38% advantage among white voters in the Tar Heel State. A month ago, Obama led by fifty-three points among African-Americans while Clinton led by twenty points among White voters.

Obama is viewed favorably by 75% of the state’s Likely Primary Voters, up three points from a month ago. Clinton is viewed favorably by 66%, down four since early March.

Nationally, Obama has the edge over Clinton in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Obama news : Clinton Asks Obama's Pledged Delegates to Switch

Sen. Hillary Clinton made a blunt appeal to North Dakota delegates to switch their support to her, despite the fact that Sen. Barack Obama handily defeated her in the state's caucus in February.

In an indication of how tense the battle has become for each Democratic delegate, Obama abandoned the campaign trail in Pennsylvania and scooted to North Dakota for the state party's annual dinner last night, despite the fact that he's already won 14 of the state's 21 delegates as well as six of the state's seven superdelegates.

The two candidates also will battle for votes tonight in Butte, Mont., when Democrats there hold their annual dinner. The Montana primary, which offers only a handful of delegates, is scheduled for June.

Clinton made it clear to North Dakota Democrats last night that she believes there is no such thing as a pledged delegate and highlighted that stubborn streak in her appeal for delegates to switch from Obama to her when the Democratic national party holds its nominating convention this August.

Obama news : Clinton hints at taking Obama's pledged delegates

Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton, who is unlikely to catch rival Barack Obama in pledged delegates, hinted on Thursday that she hoped to persuade a few to back her instead of him.

"There is no such thing as a pledged delegate," Clinton said at a news conference in California, where she has been fundraising.

Both Clinton and Obama planned to address the state convention of the North Dakota Democratic Party Friday, where delegates to this summer's national convention will be allocated. Obama crushed Clinton in the state's Feb. 5 presidential caucuses, 61-36 percent.

The former first lady said she was traveling to North Dakota to thank her supporters and delegates — and wooing Obama supporters was fair game.

Pledged delegates are "misnomer. The whole point is for delegates, however they are chosen, to really ask themselves who would be the best president and who would be our best nominee against Senator McCain," Clinton said. "And I think that process goes all the way to the convention."

While the DNC has no rules requiring pledged delegates won in primaries and caucuses to vote for the candidate, the people who serve as pledged delegates are selected by the campaigns who won them and loyalty is a key qualification.

Obama currently leads in the delegate count, 1,634-1,500, according to The Associated Press. Because of the way Democrats apportion delegates, Clinton is not projected to catch Obama even if she has a strong showing in the remaining 10 contests.

Neither candidate can win based solely on pledged delegates. The nominee is likely to be chosen by some 800 superdelegates — elected officials and party insiders free to side with any candidate they choose.

Clinton's comments came as one of her prominent supporters and superdelegates, New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, said that he would consider switching to Obama if Clinton doesn't win the popular vote.

In an interview with CNBC, Corzine expressed confidence that Clinton will pull ahead. And he agreed the race will be over if she doesn't get a "big win" in the Pennsylvania primary April 22.

"You have to have a real cut into this popular vote and I think she's going to get it, though," he said. "I feel good about that."

Obama leads Clinton by about 740,000 votes out of more than 28 million cast. That figure excludes the outcome of the Michigan and Florida primaries, which were nullified because the two states moved their contests into January in violation of Democratic Party rules.

Barack Obama news: Clinton backers-She must win popular vote

Two prominent supporters of Hillary Clinton suggested Thursday the New York senator needs to best rival Barack Obama in the total popular vote to have any chance at winning her party's presidential nomination.

In separate media interviews, New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine and Pennsylvania Rep. Jack Murtha both indicated they believed Clinton will be unable to convince enough superdelegates to support her if she finishes second to Obama in both the pledged delegate count and the popular vote.

Speaking on CNBC, Corzine suggested it won't be enough for Clinton to argue she deserves the nomination because she has won more crucial swing states than Obama — a talking point the senator's campaign has long argued.

"I think it would be a very hard argument to make," Corzine said of that position. "I'm a very aggressive supporter of Senator Clinton, but I think you need at least a popular vote."

Barack Obama news : Obama raises more than $40 million in March

Barack Obama's campaign announced a March haul of more than $40 million, raised from more than 442,000 donors. There were more than 218,000 first-time donors, and the average contribution level was $96.

The figure is not official until the campaign submits paperwork with the Federal Election Commission. The official deadline for March paperwork to be filed is April 20.

The Obama campaign released the announcement the moment the daily Clinton campaign conference call began.

Barack Obama news : Jimmy Carter hints at supporting Obama

Former President Jimmy Carter all but said Wednesday he plans to cast his superdelegate vote for Barack Obama.

Speaking with a Nigerian paper while in Abuja, Carter noted several reasons why he might be leaning toward the Illinois senator.

"Don’t forget that Obama won in my state of Georgia," Carter said. "My town, which is home to 625 people, is for Obama, my children and their spouses are pro-Obama. My grandchildren are also pro-Obama."

"As a superdelegate, I would not disclose who I am rooting for but I leave you to make that guess," Carter added.

The Carter Center confirmed to CNN the newspaper did quote Carter accurately.

Responding to the comments, Clinton campaign spokesman Howard Wolfson said Thursday, "Both Senator Clinton and President Clinton have a great deal of respect for President Carter and have enjoyed their relationship with him over the years, and obviously he is free to make whatever decision he thinks is appropriate with regard to presidential choice."

Wolfson also acknowledged "people will be interested in the choice that he makes."

Carter's remarks are the latest from the former president that suggest he is backing Obama over rival Hillary Clinton, although he has made no official endorsement. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal in January, Carter said Obama's campaign has been extraordinary and titillating for me and my family."

He also said then that Obama "will be almost automatically a healing factor in the animosity now that exists, that relates to our country and its government."

Obama wants Gore on his team

Al Gore has a spot in a potential Barack Obama administration, the Illinois senator said Wednesday.

Asked at a campaign event if he'd consider Gore for his cabinet, Obama immediately said he would.

" I will make a commitment that Al Gore will be at the table and play a central part in us figuring out how we solve this [climate change] problem," Obama said.

Obama also said he talks with the former vice president on a "regular basis," and often consults with him on climate change issues.

Could Gore serve alongside Bill Clinton in an Obama administration? Last November, the Illinois senator said he'd offer the former president a job "in a second."

"There are few more talented people [than Clinton]," Obama said then.

Poll: Obama has double digit lead nationally

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama extended his lead nationally over Sen. Hillary Clinton Monday according to the latest national polls.

The Gallup Poll conducted March 27-29 with a margin of error of 3 percentage points shows the Illinois Senator has a 10 percent lead over the New York Senator among Democrats, marking the first time since early February Gallup polls have shown either candidate with a double digit lead. In February, Gallup showed Clinton held an 11 percent advantage over Obama.

Last week’s Pew Poll also confirmed Obama had weathered the media storm surrounding the Reverend Wright controversy and maintained his lead.

Despite pressure from some powerful Obama supporters and being behind nationally in the polls, Clinton said the race should not end before all votes had been cast. "I didn't think we believed that in America. I thought we of all people knew how important it was to give everyone a chance to have their voices heard and their votes counted," she said.

Looking to the critical state of Pennsylvania, Clinton holds a 12 percent lead ahead of the state’s April 22 primary, according to the latest CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released earlier this month.

Both candidates continue to campaign heavily in the state of Pennsylvania Monday, where there are 158 pledged delegates up for grabs.

Update: CNN poll of polls released Monday, which includes the results of several recent major surveys, shows Hillary Clinton with a 14 percent lead in Pennsylvania over Barack Obama.

Steady stream of party leaders moving to Obama

Slowly but steadily, a string of Democratic Party figures is taking Barack Obama's side in the presidential nominating race and raising the pressure on Hillary Clinton to give up.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota is expected to endorse Sen. Obama Monday, according to a Democrat familiar with her plans. Meanwhile, North Carolina's seven Democratic House members are poised to endorse Sen. Obama as a group -- just one has so far -- before that state's May 6 primary, several Democrats say.
Helping to drive the endorsements is a fear that the Obama-Clinton contest has grown toxic and threatens the Democratic Party's chances against Republican John McCain in the fall.

Sen. Clinton rejects that view. Over the weekend, she reiterated her intent to stay in the race beyond the last contest in early June -- and all the way to the party's convention in Denver, if necessary.
"There are some folks saying we ought to stop these elections," she said Saturday in Indiana, which also has a May 6 primary. "I didn't think we believed that in America. I thought we of all people knew how important it was to give everyone a chance to have their voices heard and their votes counted."
Sen. Obama told reporters, "My attitude is that Sen. Clinton can run as long as she wants."
In earlier eras, the standoff between the two candidates might have been resolved by party elders acting behind the scenes. But no Democrat today has the power to knock heads and resolve the mess. Party Chairman Howard Dean says he was "dumbfounded" at the suggestion by Vermont Sen. Patrick Leahy Friday that Sen. Clinton should pull out.
"Having run for president myself, nobody tells you when to get in, and nobody tells you when to get out," Mr. Dean said. "That's about the most personal decision you can make after all the time and effort you put into it."
New York Sen. Clinton still hopes that by turning in strong performances in the final primaries, she can blunt the momentum of her rival from Illinois and make the case that she is best-positioned to take on Sen. McCain. With Mr. Dean, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, former Vice President Al Gore and other party leaders remaining neutral, the question is whether the trend of party figures endorsing Sen. Obama will build enough momentum to tip the race.
The expected move by Minnesota's Sen. Klobuchar follows Friday's endorsement of Sen. Obama by Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, which holds its primary April 22.
Both senators had planned to remain neutral, according to party officials, but decided to weigh in as the Democrats' campaign became more negative and Sen. McCain was free to exploit the confusion looking to the November election.
One North Carolinian confirmed that at least several of the state's House members would go public in favor of Sen. Obama before long. Meanwhile, elected officials in other states with upcoming contests, including Indiana, Montana and Oregon, are weighing whether to endorse Sen. Obama.
What makes such endorsements significant is that they're from superdelegates. These delegates -- members of Congress, governors and other party officials -- can vote for whomever they want at the Democratic convention in August. Sen. Obama has a slight lead over Sen. Clinton in the pledged-delegate count -- the delegates won during primaries and caucuses -- but neither can amass enough pledged delegates for a majority. That makes the vote of the superdelegates decisive.
Since the "Super Tuesday" primaries on Feb. 5, Sen. Obama has won commitments from 64 superdelegates and Sen. Clinton has gotten nine. Sen. Obama has a total of 217 superdelegates in his camp while Sen. Clinton has 250, and her margin has been shrinking with each week. Sen. Clinton would have several more in her tally, but they're from Michigan, and delegates from Michigan and Florida won't be seated -- at least for now -- because both states defied party rules and held their primaries earlier than permitted.
"I think that says a lot about just where people are and what they're thinking," says former Senate Majority Leader Thomas Daschle, an Obama supporter. "And I think the numbers are just going to keep getting better" for Sen. Obama. Counting Sen. Klobuchar, Sen. Obama leads 13-11 among their Democratic colleagues in the Senate.

Even raising the prospect of a convention fight could backfire for Sen. Clinton by antagonizing the superdelegates she needs. Many superdelegates are on the ballot themselves this year, and the last thing they want is a chaotic convention that plays into the hands of Republicans.
In interviews, some House Democrats said Sen. Obama has the edge in the chamber. They noted that he has proved himself the stronger fund-raiser and has attracted more new voters to the party than anyone in recent memory -- both advantages that could benefit other Democrats. They worry that Sen. Clinton's high negative ratings in polls would incite more Republicans to mobilize against her and the Democratic ticket.
Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut, a former presidential candidate and a past party chairman, told National Journal Friday that Sen. Obama's nomination is "a foregone conclusion" and "enough is enough." Sen. Dodd has endorsed Sen. Obama.
Mr. Dean, the party chairman, is urging uncommitted superdelegates to take sides no later than July 1, and effectively name the nominee. "If we go into the convention divided, it's pretty likely we'll come out of the convention divided," he said.
Democrats across the board, he said, "are haranguing me to show leadership." But they're often partisans for one candidate or the other, he added. Meanwhile, he said he is conferring with other party leaders, including Mrs. Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada; former Vice President Al Gore; civil-rights veteran and Clinton confidante Vernon Jordan; former New York Gov. Mario Cuomo; and Jesse Jackson and his son, Chicago Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.
"Most of their advice is, 'Let this play out, let's get through the primaries,' " Mr. Dean said. "And I think that's right....Voters have to have their say. It's painful, because that means we've got another two months of this."

Clinton, Obama supporters wrangle over delegates

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Less than a month ago, Texas Democrats turned out in huge numbers for the presidential nominating contest between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama, confident that, no matter who won, the party would have a popular, well-financed candidate.

But that exuberance is gone now.


Across the state this weekend, tense confrontations -- even shoving matches -- erupted as partisans for Clinton and Obama battled over how to interpret the March 4 election results and how to choose delegates to the Texas Democratic convention.

At one particularly raucous session Saturday at Texas Southern University, a leading Clinton backer, U.S. Rep. Sheila Jackson-Lee, was booed by hundreds of Obama supporters, and police were called later to break up heated exchanges that left some in tears.

"It's bedlam," said Houston lawyer Daniel J. Shea, a Clinton backer.

Democrat-on-Democrat clashes over delegates have been playing out in Iowa, Colorado, Florida and other states -- the latest indication that the feel-good nomination race of the era has veered into a political ditch.

The contentious battle in Texas shows the high cost of this unending campaign. To hold his delegate lead, Obama has kept a team of 65 paid organizers and lawyers in the state this month, while Clinton has 45.

As the feud rages -- even in states that voted weeks or months ago -- each side has its own game plan for victory. For Obama, it means highlighting his lead in delegates to the party's national convention in Denver. For Clinton, it means lengthening the campaign so that she can use every tactic to narrow her delegate deficit and to win upcoming primaries in her bid to raise doubts about Obama's electability in the fall.

The candidates have also become far more combative, and that hostility has party leaders worried. In a year that looked to be a Democratic romp, Obama and Clinton are burning money, erasing goodwill and eviscerating each other's reputation while the presumptive Republican nominee, John McCain, prepares to kick off his general-election campaign with a nationwide tour designed to highlight of military and congressional experience. On Saturday, Clinton told the Washington Post that she was prepared to take her campaign all the way to the party convention in August.

"This thing has turned from being an adventure to being a grind," said Robert M. Shrum, a Democratic strategist who managed John F. Kerry's 2004 presidential campaign.

Polls published last week showed some of the dangers: McCain has gained ground against both Democrats, and at least 20% of each Democratic candidate's supporters now say they would consider abandoning the party in November if their candidate is not the nominee.

The potential for anger is more pronounced -- and the consequences more dire -- than in most campaigns because this contest is being waged along the fault lines of gender and race, with the would-be first female president versus the would-be first black president.

That was starkly evident Saturday at one convention in Houston, where mostly white Clinton supporters repeatedly challenged the credentials of black Obama backers in a heavily black district that had voted overwhelmingly for Obama. Democratic leaders, who had been thrilled by the massive turnout in early-voting states, now fear the consequences not only in the presidential race but also in state and local ones.

"When you have a divided party, I think it hurts you up and down the ticket," said Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen, a Democrat, who said his party cannot afford to lose seats in an evenly divided state Senate and a state House controlled by a narrow Democratic majority. "Somebody who's mad enough at one of the candidates to want to vote for John McCain is more likely to [vote] down that side of the ballot."

Bredesen has circulated a plan to stave off a potentially divisive national nominating convention in August by holding a "primary" earlier this summer among the nearly 800 superdelegates -- the party's elected officials, leaders and activists -- whose votes could decide the race and forestall the type of delegate fights now unfolding in Texas.

Another party elder, former New York Gov. Mario Cuomo, proposed Saturday that Clinton and Obama avert a "disaster" by agreeing to share the ticket, with the delegate winner running for president and the loser for vice president.

"If, on the other hand, the candidates refuse to work out a way to keep both constituencies firmly in the Democratic camp for the general election," Cuomo wrote in the Boston Globe, "the 2008 primary may be the story of a painfully botched grand opportunity to return our nation to the upward path and [instead] leave us mired in Iraq and government mediocrity."

Such concern prompted one prominent U.S. senator, Patrick J. Leahy of Vermont, an Obama supporter, to call Friday for Clinton to step aside, while Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean urged the candidates to find a resolution by July.

The acrimony was on sharp display Saturday in Texas as Democrats met in 280 district conventions, part of the complicated system the state uses to determine the makeup of its delegation to the national convention.

Clinton won the primary in Texas, but Obama won the caucuses that followed after the polls closed. It was those caucus results that were being challenged Saturday at conventions that drew thousands of boisterous participants.

HILLARY EXPOSED

Hillary Clinton has a solu tion to her Tuzla problem - let's talk about Rev. Je remiah Wright some more.
On the day after the CBS News aired video making a hash of Sen. Clinton's claim to have landed "under sniper fire" in Tuzla, Bosnia in 1996, she raised for the first time the issue of Barack Obama's relationship to Rev. Wright.
In this, she followed a Clinton family pattern so well-established it's almost boring: Misrepresent the truth as convenient - then, when caught, go on the offensive.
This method served the Clintons well during eight years in the White House, when Democrats exalted them for winning by any means fair or foul. But now that the Clintons' dark arts of spin and remorseless ambition are being turned on their fellow partisans, Democrats seem stunned - like the tiger handler who can't believe his big cat turned on him.
Dante couldn't have devised a more appropriate ring of hell as punishment for the party than spending a few more months with the Clintons in a dispiriting slog of a nomination battle.
Even though Tuzla has been plastered on TV news the last few days, it's unclear how much the fracas will damage Hillary. Those voters who don't already think she's untrustworthy are either blinkered partisans or haven't been paying attention (since roughly 1992). In a Gallup poll this month, 53 percent thought Hillary wasn't honest and trustworthy, while Obama and John McCain were rated trustworthy by more than 2-1 margins.
Since Hillary isn't running a character campaign, yet another nick on her credibility isn't very telling.
But Tuzla does hurt - by exposing her Walter Mitty life as a first lady who, in largely ceremonial trips abroad, apparently imagined herself engaged in high-stakes diplomacy.
On her trips, everyone else saw a feminist icon and international celebrity cheering the troops, greeting children, and meeting with local women - while she thought she was the Clinton administration's secret Kissinger.
Or that's how she's portrays herself now - out of sheer necessity: Clinton needs something to back up her famous "3 a.m." ad hitting Obama for his lack of national security credentials.
What she could legitimately argue is that she was at the center of power for two terms and knows what the pressure is like in a way Obama can't. Anyone reading between the lines would know her proverbial 3 a.m. calls had to do with the fallout from her husband's perjurous denials of his dalliance with a White House intern.
She needed something more - hence her laughable exaggerations about helping bring peace to North Ireland, negotiating a way way out of Kosovo for refugees and running under sniper fire in Tuzla.
Those claims could all be rebutted in print, and had been. But it took video of her - with no helmet or flak jacket - smiling and greeting a 8-year-old girl on the tarmac to destroy her story in an instant.
The CBS footage is the blue dress of the Hillary campaign, the lock-down evidence that can't be spun away.
Hillary's camp claims she misspoke. This abuses the term. Misspeaking is mixing something up - not manufacturing a new memory.
Of course, memory plays tricks on everyone. (Not for nothing do the Russians say, "No one lies like an eyewitness.") But being anywhere near hostile fire as a civilian is a terrifying (and sometimes perversely exhilarating) experience that gets etched into memory. There's no forgetting it or making it up.

NICHOLAS KRISTOF: Hillary could be the Nader of 2008

Yes, Hillary Rodham Clinton may still have a chance of winning the Democratic nomination. But it’s probably smaller than the chance that a continued slugfest will hand the White House to John McCain.

Consider what it would take for Senator Clinton to win.
For starters, she would have to pull ahead in the popular vote, to balance her second-place spot in number of states won and in pledged delegates. As Bill Clinton put it on March 17: “If Senator Obama wins the popular vote then the choice will be easier. But if Hillary wins the popular vote but can’t quite catch up with the delegate votes, then you have to just ask yourself which is more important and who is more likely to win in November.”
Even Mr. Clinton seemed to concede the nomination to Mr. Obama unless Mrs. Clinton wins the popular vote; without that, she doesn’t even have an argument. Unfortunately for the Clintons, almost nobody who has done the math thinks that she can win the popular vote without re-votes in Florida and Michigan.
Mrs. Clinton is more than 700,000 votes behind in the popular vote. With 10 states and territories still to vote, perhaps another six million votes could be cast if turnout is very high, by the count of Ben Smith at Politico.com.
To get the lead, she would need to win at least 56 percent of all the remaining votes — or well more than 60 percent of the votes outside of North Carolina and other states she is expected to lose. So far, though, Mrs. Clinton hasn’t won 60 percent in any state except Arkansas, where she had been the state’s first lady.
All this means that Mrs. Clinton’s chances of winning are negligible, barring some major development.
Meanwhile, the big winner of the Democratic fist-fighting is Senator McCain. A Gallup poll released Wednesday found that 19 percent of Mr. Obama’s supporters said they would vote for Mr. McCain in the general election if Mrs. Clinton were the nominee. More startling, 28 percent of Mrs. Clinton’s supporters said they would defect to Mr. McCain if Mr. Obama were the nominee.
Exit polls show the same trend. In South Carolina in January, about 70 percent of each candidate’s supporters said they would be happy if the other person ended up winning the nomination. By the Ohio and Texas primaries in March, fewer than half of each candidate’s supporters said they would be content with the other person as nominee.
Granted, tempers may cool by November. But dragging out the contest only deepens wounds and reduces time for healing: In 9 of the last 10 presidential elections, the nominee chosen first ended up winning in November. And if the Democratic nominee has been crippled, that would hurt Democrats running for other offices as well.
“It’s amazing how bitter it’s getting, and it can only get worse in the months ahead,” said Gov. Philip Bredesen, a Democrat of Tennessee, who has not taken sides. “I’d love to have a Democratic president, but I’d also love to have a Democratic Congress. If you’ve got people mad and staying home, that can’t possibly help candidates running for the Senate, candidates running for House seats, and for the State Legislature.”
Mr. Bredesen is urging superdelegates (he’s one) to hold a primary in June, so that a winner would be chosen in time to begin a healing process before the convention.
Instead, the battle is getting bloodier. Mrs. Clinton spoke this week about the contest continuing for “the next three months” — and those would surely be a toxic three months. There’s already grumbling that Mrs. Clinton’s real strategy is to destroy Mr. Obama’s chances of winning the general election so that she can compete in 2012.
Senator Clinton, who has done so much fine work on health and children’s issues for so many years and who more recently has been an outstanding senator, deserves better. Likewise, Mr. Clinton, who tackled AIDS and poverty so passionately since leaving the White House, risks tarnishing his own legacy. His poll approval ratings have dropped steadily, and he now has higher unfavorable ratings than favorable.
If Mrs. Clinton can run a high-minded, civil campaign and rein in her proxies, then she has every right to continue through the next few primaries, and the Democrats might even benefit from the bolstered attention and turnout. But if the brawl continues, then she and her husband may be remembered by many people who long admired them as having the same effect on Mr. Obama this November that Ralph Nader had on Al Gore in 2000.
Do the Clintons really want to risk becoming the Naders of 2008?